Let's play a little offseason ball and run the numbers for the most viable 'Umpire 2' candidates for promotion to crew chief, care of Dale Scott's retirement. For a little more spice, we'll consider Angel Hernandez's perspective, relative to his lawsuit against the MLB Commissioner's Office alleging an unjust denial of promotion to crew chief. Will 2018 prove, finally, to be his time?
Related Post: Angel Hernandez Sues MLB for Racial Discrimination (7/3/17).
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| Which umpire's promotion is in the cards for 2018? |
Does plaintiff Angel Hernandez have a point—is he truly the most qualified candidate who continually is passed over? We'll also analyze some recent promotions to crew chief over the past few seasons to see if the numbers truly support Hernandez's case. We will conclude with a ranking of potential candidates for the crew chief vacancy based on the following analysis. The following sections contain conjecture based upon on-field and roster-based historical statistics. First, we define the terms and scope of this study.
Eligibility: Generally speaking, an umpire is eligible for promotion to crew chief if: A) The umpire has served as a "Number 2" or backup crew chief on a Major League crew and/or has played the part of interim or acting crew chief; and B) the umpire actually wants, and presumably applies for, the crew chief role.
Candidates: Although we are not privy to the details regarding which umpires fit criterion B) regarding interest in the position, we can narrow down the staff to those number twos who are most qualified. The following analysis will include only the top candidates who also fit criterion A). Generally speaking, there is great overlap between top candidates and those who are already number twos.
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| Angel Hernandez has been #2 since 2002. |
One metric is experience: How long has the umpire been a number two (var: Ump2), or what history does the umpire have serving as an acting crew chief during regular season play?
The second is postseason work: What does the umpire's body of October assignments look like?
Third, we consider performance: What are the umpire's RAPs, strike zone %, and observer feedback?
Finally, intangibles takes into account extracurricular leadership qualities that generally can't be quantitatively measured. For instance, how, exactly, would one go about numerically factoring in achievements such as "Reverend Doctor" or serving on a Board of Directors (e.g., Calling for Christ or UmpsCare Charities)?
Finally, intangibles takes into account extracurricular leadership qualities that generally can't be quantitatively measured. For instance, how, exactly, would one go about numerically factoring in achievements such as "Reverend Doctor" or serving on a Board of Directors (e.g., Calling for Christ or UmpsCare Charities)?
Analysis:
