Tuesday, September 30, 2014

MLB Ejection & Replay Stats: 2014 Season Sabermetrics

Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics for MLB's 2014 regular season are now available. Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League presents our season's-end strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

With the 2014 MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps the year's traditional ejections, plus professional baseball's "this time it counts" inaugural season with Instant Replay Reviews.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 199 Total Regular Season Ejections, an increase of 19 ejections (11%) over 2013's 180 ejections.
>> Umpires were 71.7% accurate on calls associated with ejection, an increase over 2013.
>> The Red Sox were ejected more often than any other team; the AL East led all MLB divisions.
>> The Nationals were ejected less often than any other team; the AL West trailed all MLB divisions.
>> Managers Renteria (CHC), Gardenhire (MIN) and McClendon (SEA) led all managers.
>> Umpires Bellino and Nelson led all umpires; Carlson was the most accurate ejector (highest E-QOC).
>> Bill Miller and Joe West's crews led all of baseball in ejection activity.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 8th inning; Ejections from 6th and on comprised 63% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 52% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by arguing a Replay Review.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 1274 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 53% of the time (47% overturned).
>> The Chicago Cubs used replay more than any other team; the Brewers less than all others.
>> Manager Renteria (CHC) led all managers in filing challenges, but was fairly inaccurate.
>> Manager Girardi (NYY) filed less challenges than most managers, but led the league in accuracy.
>> The league average manager was successful in challenging a play 53% of the time.
>> Umpire Reyburn saw 24 of his calls reviewed, more than any other umpire.
>> Bill Miller's crew led all of baseball in replay activity.
>> Umpire Guccione led the league in accuracy with most of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> A trio of call-ups had all calls overturned, but only had two reviews apiece (very small sample size).
>> Most reviews occurred in the 8th inning. Reviews from 7th and on comprised 41% of all reviews.
>> Most reviews occurred on Saturdays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Safe/Out, followed by HR/Not HR and Rule 7.13.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes for the 2014 regular season, follow the "read more" link below. The advanced data below includes team and individual (by manager/player/umpire) ejection and replay review leaders and statistics, including manager's challenges and crew chief reviews. Complete listed ranking of least and most successful managers in challenging, most successful teams (manager's challenges + crew chief reviews) and review percentages by umpire are included.



We begin this week's sabermetric analysis with umpire ejections. Games Played: 2430 of 2430.
Ejections: 199 (Compare to: 180 Ejections in 2013, 178 [2012], 199 [2011], 201 [2010], 165 [2009]).
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): Boston Red Sox - 14 (NYY 12, TB 11, LAD 10).
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): WAS Nationals - 1 (HOU & CLE 2, BAL & LAA 3).
"Manager ejections leader" (Ejected most often): Rick Renteria, Ron Gardenhire, Lloyd McClendon - 6.
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Yunel Escobar, Matt Kemp - 3.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dan Bellino, Jeff Nelson - 7.
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Bill Miller, Joe West - 14.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Mark Carlson - 100% in 4/4 chances.
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .717 (104 Y / 41 N) + 54 Irrecusable = 199 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 50-100-49.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 127-72. (Delta: 22-27; WPCT: .449).

By Inning: 8 (35), 6 (32), 7 (30), 9 (22), 3 (21), 4 (17), 5 (16), 2 (11), 1 (8), Extras (7).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (94), Replay Review (24), Throwing At (22), Check Swing (10), USC-NEC (9).
By Day of Week: Sun (42), Sat (33), Fri (28), Wed (26), Tues (25), Thurs (23), Mon (22).

Next up is the category of Instant Replay Reviews.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 1274, .525 RAP.
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 221 (17%), .769 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 1053 (83%), .474 RAP.
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Chicago Cubs - 61 (TB 59, TOR 57).
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): Milwaukee Brewers - 32 (NYY 33, BAL & MIA - 34).
"Manager's Challenge Leader" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria - 55 (Maddon 48, Gibbons 47).
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Joe Girardi - .793 (23/39).
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .526.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): John Gibbons - .340 (16/47).
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): New York Yankees - .697 (23/33).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Toronto Blue Jays - .316 (18/57).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): DJ Reyburn - 24 (.417 RAP).
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Bill Miller - 62 (.597 RAP).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Chris Guccione - .941 in 16/17.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): May, Gosney, Byrne - .000 in 2/2 Each.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .525 (669/1274 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 446-490-332.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 618-650. (Delta: 172-160; WPCT: .518).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 8 (169), 9 (156), 7 (154), 6 (146), 5 (137), 3 (123), 4 (122), 1 (121), 2 (100), Extras (45).
- By Type: Safe/Out (954), HR/Not (97), Rule 7.13 (92), HBP/Foul (46), Fair/Foul (21), Catch/Trap (21).
- By Day of Week: Sat (216), Sun (204), Wed (199), Fri (196), Tues (170), Mon (151), Thurs (138).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Chicago Cubs: 61 (5 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 56 Challenges [.554 RAP]).
2. Tampa Bay Rays: 59 (11 Crew Chief Reviews [.909 RAP], 48 Challenges [.563 RAP]).
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 57 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 47 Challenges [.660 RAP]).
4. Texas Rangers: 50 (6 Crew Chief Reviews [.500 RAP], 44 Challenges [.500 RAP]).
5. LA Angels of Anaheim: 48 (12 Crew Chief Reviews [.833 RAP], 36 Challenges [.444 RAP]).
6. Los Angeles Dodgers: 46 (7 Crew Chief Reviews [.857 RAP], 39 Challenges [.462 RAP]).
7. Chicago White Sox: 45 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.900 RAP], 35 Challenges [.543 RAP]).
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: 45 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.900 RAP], 35 Challenges [.429 RAP]).
7. Seattle Mariners: 45 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.900 RAP], 35 Challenges [.429 RAP]).
10. Arizona Diamondbacks: 44 (7 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 37 Challenges [.486 RAP]).
10. Boston Red Sox: 44 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 34 Challenges [.471 RAP]).

Most and Least Successful Managers - Managers with Highest and Lowest CSP
*1. Jeff Banister (Pittsburgh Pirates Acting Manager): 1.000 (2/2 Challenges Overturned).
*1. Don Wakamatsu (Seattle Mariners Acting Manager): 1.000 (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
*1. Jerry Narron (Milwaukee Brewers Acting Manager): 1.000 (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
4. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees): .793 (23/29 Challenges Overturned).
5. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .731 (19/26 Challenges Overturned).
6. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): .676 (23/34 Challenges Overturned).
7. Matt Williams (Washington Nationals): .645 (20/31 Challenges Overturned).
8. Ned Yost (Milwaukee Brewers): .617 (21/34 Challenges Overturned).
9. Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants): .611 (22/36 Challenges Overturned).
10. Brad Ausmus (Detroit Tigers): .605 (23/38 Challenges Overturned).
*11. Tom Lawless (Houston Astros Interim Manager): .600 (3/5 Challenges Overturned).
12. Ron Roenicke (Milwaukee Brewers): .593 (16/27 Challenges Overturned).
13. Lloyd McClendon (Seattle Mariners): .588 (20/34 Challenges Overturned).
14. Bo Porter (Houston Astros [Former]): .571 (16/28 Challenges Overturned).
15. Mike Scioscia (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim): .556 (20/36 Challenges Overturned).
16. Clint Hurdle (Colorado Rockies): .546 (18/33 Challenges Overturned).
17. Ron Gardenhire (Minnesota Twins): .541 (20/37 Challenges Overturned).
18. Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics): .539 (14/26 Challenges Overturned).
18. Don Mattingly (Los Angeles Dodgers): .539 (21/39 Challenges Overturned).
20. John Farrell (Boston Red Sox): .529 (18/34 Challenges Overturned).
21. Kirk Gibson (Arizona Diamondbacks): .528 (19/36 Challenges Overturned).
League Average - .526 (554/1053 Challenges Overturned).
22. Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles): .517 (15/29 Challenges Overturned).
23. Bud Black (San Diego Padres): .515 (17/33 Challenges Overturned).
23. Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): .515 (17/33 Challenges Overturned).
25. Ron Washington (Texas Rangers [Former]): .500 (18/36 Challenges Overturned).
*25. Tim Bogar (Texas Rangers Interim Manager): .500 (4/8 Challenges Overturned).
27. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .457 (16/35 Challenges Overturned).
28. Rick Renteria (Chicago Cubs): .455 (25/55 Challenges Overturned).
29. Terry Collins (New York Mets): .452 (14/31 Challenges Overturned).
30. Bryan Price (Cincinnati Reds): .444 (12/27 Challenges Overturned).
31. Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay Rays): .438 (21/48 Challenges Overturned).
31. Ryne Sandberg (Philadelphia Phillies): .438 (14/32 Challenges Overturned).
33. Walt Weiss (Colorado Rockies): .378 (14/37 Challenges Overturned).
34. Mike Matheny (St. Louis Cardinals): .367 (11/30 Challenges Overturned).
35. John Gibbons (Toronto Blue Jays): .340 (16/47 Challenges Overturned).
*36. Trent Jewett (Seattle Mariners Acting Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
*36. Alan Trammell (Arizona Diamondbacks Interim Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
*36. Gene Lamont (Oakland Athletics Acting Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
*36. Brandon Hyde (Chicago Cubs Acting Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).

*Asterisk denotes Acting and Interim Managers (all with eight or fewer challenges filed).

Team Success Percentage - TSP
1. NYY - .697 (23/33).
2. ATL - .667 (24/36).
3. KC - .611 (22/36).
4. DET - .595 (25/42).
5. MIA - .588 (20/34).
6. SF - .571 (24/42).
7. MIL - .563 (18/32).
8. WAS - .548 (23/42).
9. MIN - .513 (20/39).
10. BAL - .500 (17/34) & TEX (25/50).
12. HOU - .487 (19/39).
13. LAD - .478 (22/46).
14. CLE - .476 (20/42).
League Average - .475 (605/1274).
15. PIT - .467 (21/45) & SEA (21/45).
17. NYM - .460 (17/37).
18. LAA - .458 (22/48).
19. BOS - .455 (20/44).
20. OAK - .452 (19/42).
21. SD - .447 (17/38).
22. PHI - .436 (17/39).
23. ARI - .432 (19/44).
24. CIN - .429 (15/35).
25. CHC - .426 (26/61).
26. COL - .381 (16/42).
27. CWS - .378 (17/45).
28. TB - .373 (22/59).
29. STL - .325 (13/40).
30. TOR - .316 (18/57).

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
*1. John Hirschbeck - 1.000 (1/1).
2. Chris Guccione - .941 (16/17).
3. Scott Barry - .875 (7/8).
4. Hunter Wendelstedt - .846 (11/13).
5. Vic Carapazza - .833 (15/18).
6. Mike Estabrook - .813 (13/16).
7. Dan Bellino - .800 (12/15).
8. Mark Ripperger - .714 (10/14) & Jim Wolf (10/14).
10. Alan Porter - .706 (12/17).
11. Eric Cooper - .700 (7/10), Alfonso Marquez (7/10) & Paul Nauert (7/10).
14. Jordan Baker - .692 (9/13).
15. Fieldin Culbreth - .667, Chad Fairchild, Brian Knight, Will Little, Jim Reynolds, Chris Segal, Tim Timmons.
22. Dale Scott - .643 (9/14).
23. Mark Wegner - .632 (12/19).
24. Greg Gibson - .625 (10/16) & Bill Miller (10/16).
26. Bob Davidson - .619 (13/21).
27. Brian Gorman - .615 (8/13) & Adam Hamari (8/13).
29. Joe West - .600 (6/10).
30. Clint Fagan - .588 (10/17).
31. Manny Gonzalez - .579 (11/19).
32. Rob Drake - .571 (8/14) & Larry Vanover (12/21).
34. Tripp Gibson - .556 (10/18), Tom Hallion (5/9) & Jerry Meals (10/18).
37. Dana DeMuth - .539 (7/13).
38. Mike Muchlinski - .533 (8/15) & Jeff Nelson (8/15).
40. Bill Welke - .529 (9/17).
41. Pat Hoberg - .526 (10/19).
League Average - .525 (669/1274).
42. Quinn Wolcott - .524 (11/21).
43. Mike DiMuro - .500, Andy Fletcher, Adrian Johnson, Jeff Kellogg, David Rackley, Mike Winters.
*43. Angel Campos - .500 (1/2) & Marcus Pattillo.
51. Doug Eddings - .473 (11/23).
52. Chris Conroy - .471 (8/17) & Dan Iassogna (8/17).
54. Tony Randazzo - .467 (7/15) & Todd Tichenor (7/15).
56. Sean Barber - .462 (6/13).
57. Ted Barrett - .455 (10/22).
58. Angel Hernandez - .450 (9/20).
59. CB Bucknor - .444 (8/18).
60. Ed Hickox - .438 (7/16) & Gabe Morales (7/16).
62. Lance Barrett - .429 (9/21), James Hoye (6/14) & Laz Diaz (6/14).
65. Lance Barksdale - .417, Mark Carlson, Ron Kulpa, DJ Reyburn.
69. Cory Blaser - .412 (7/17).
70. Kerwin Danley - .400 (6/15) & Marvin Hudson (6/15).
72. Paul Schrieber - .389 (7/18).
73. Gerry Davis - .385 (5/13) & Mike Everitt (5/13).
75. Jerry Layne - .375 (6/16).
76. Brian O'Nora - .357 (5/14).
77. Tim Welke - .353 (6/17).
78. Toby Basner - .333 (3/9), Gary Cederstrom (7/21).
*78. Paul Emmel - .333 (2/6), Jim Joyce (2/6).
82. Phil Cuzzi - .316 (6/19).
83. Marty Foster - .313 (5/16).
84. John Tumpane - .286 (4/14).
*84. Stu Scheurwater - .286 (2/7).
86. Seth Buckminster - .250 (4/16).
*87. Tom Woodring - .167 (1/6).
*88. Jon Byrne - .000 (0/2), Jeff Gosney (0/2) & Ben May (0/2).

*Asterisk denotes Umpire with limited exposure (seven or fewer plays reviewed via instant replay).

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