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Monday, June 9, 2014

MLB Ejection & Replay Review Stats: Week 10 Sabermetrics

Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 10. As the numbers and trends solidify, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

With Week 10 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps traditional ejections, plus professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews.

We begin this week's sabermetric analysis with umpire ejections.
Ejections: 81 (on pace for 210 [+6 from last wk] Ejections). (Compare to: 180 Ejections in 2013)
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): Boston Red Sox - 9 (Chicago Cubs - 6).
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): SD Padres, MIN Twins, CLE Indians - 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Manager ejected most often): Rick Renteria - 4 (1.000 QOC Y).
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Daniel Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Troy Tulowitzki - 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dan Bellino - 5 (1.000 QOC + 3 QOCU).
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Fieldin Culbreth - 8 (.750).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Basner, Tim Timmons - 1.000 in 3/3.
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .780 (46 Y / 13 N) + 22 Irrecusable = 81 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 16-46-19.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 30-51. (Delta: 14-5; WPCT: .737).

Next up is the category of Instant Replay Reviews. Our sample size is n=468.

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Oakland A's, Chicago Cubs - 24.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): Baltimore Orioles - 9.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria - 23 (.522 CSP).
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Mike Redmond - .846 (11/13).
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .507.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): Joe Maddon - .300 (6/20).
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Miami Marlins - .706 (12/17).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Cincinnati Reds - .250 (3/12).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jim Reynolds - 13 (.615 RAP).
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Larry Vanover - 33 (.333).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Chris Guccione - 1.000 in 6/6.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Gosney, Randazzo, Scheurwater - .000 in 0/2.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .528 (247/468 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 155-191-119.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 219-246. (Delta: 64-55; WPCT: .538).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
Games Played: 937 of 2430.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 468 (on pace for 1,213 [-12 from last wk] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 64 (14%), .750 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 404 (86%), .493 RAP.

- By Inning: 7 (61), 9 (59), 6 (57), 5 & 8 (56), 3 (43), 1 (41), 4 (40), 2 (38), Extra Innings (17).
- By Type: Safe/Out (357), HR/Not HR (35), Rule 7.13 (21), HBP/Foul (17), Fair/Foul & Catch/Trap (10).
- By Day of Week: Sun (85), Wed (76), Sat (70), Mon (65), Fri (64), Thurs (56), Tues (52).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 24 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 14 Challenges [.500 RAP]).
1. Chicago Cubs: 24 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 23 Challenges [.522 RAP]).
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 22 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 20 Challenges [.650 RAP]).
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 21 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 20 Challenges [.700 RAP]).
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 20 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 19 Challenges [.474 RAP]).
6. LA Angels/Anaheim: 18 (3 Crew Chief Reviews [.667 RAP], 15 Challenges [.533 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
*1. Jeff Banister (Pittsburgh Pirates Acting Manager): 1.000 (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
2. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .846 (11/13 Challenges Overturned).
3. Bruce Bochy (SF Giants), Fredi Gonzalez (ATL Braves): .692 (9/14 Challenges Overturned).
5. Joe Girardi (NY Yankees), Bud Black (SD Padres): .667 (10/15, 6/9 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
*1. Gene Lamont (Oakland Athletics Acting Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
2. Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay Rays): .300 (6/20 Challenges Overturned).
3. Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): .308 (4/13 Challenges Overturned).
4. Kirk Gibson (ARI D-Backs), Bryan Price (CIN Reds), Mike Matheny (STL Cards): .333.

Team Success Percentage - TSP
1. MIA - .706 (12/17)
2. ATL, SF - .692 (9/13)
4. NYY - .588 (10/17)
5. HOU - .583 (7/12)
6. COL - .563 (9/16)
7. BAL - .556 (5/9)
8. SD - .546 (6/11)
9. BOS, TEX, KC, WAS - .533 (8/15)
13. DET - .529 (9/17)
14. CHC, PIT, LAD, MIL - .500
League Average - .472
18. NYM - .462 (6/13)
19. LAA - .444 (8/18)
20. PHI - .438 (7/16)
21. MIN - .400 (6/15)
22. CWS - .385 (5/13)
23. OAK - .375 (9/24)
24. STL - .364 (4/11)
25. SEA - .353 (6/17)
26. TOR - .318 (7/22)
27. CLE - .313 (5/16)
28. TB, ARI - .286 (6/21 & 4/14)
30. CIN - .250 (3/12)

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
1. Chris Guccione - 1.000 (6/6).
2. Dan Bellino, Vic Carapazza - 1.000 (5/5).
4. Jordan Baker - 1.000 (4/4).
5. Chris Segal - 1.000 (3/3).
6. Scott Barry, David Rackley - 1.000 (2/2).
8. John Hirschbeck - 1.000 (1/1).
9. Mike Estabrook - .857 (6/7).
10. Eric Cooper, Hunter Wendelstedt - .800 (4/5).
12. Mark Wegner - .778 (7/9).
13. Tim Timmons, Greg Gibson, Will Little, Brian Knight - .750
...
League Average - .528.
...
77. Angel Hernandez - .222 (2/9).
78. Marty Foster, Dale Scott - .200 (1/5).
80. John Tumpane - .167 (1/6).
81. Gosney, Scheurwater, Randazzo, Kellogg, Woodring - .000.

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