Monday, June 2, 2014

MLB Ejection & Replay Review Stats: Week 9 Sabermetrics

Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 9. As the numbers and trends solidify, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

With Week 9 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps traditional ejections, plus professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews.

We begin this week's sabermetric analysis with umpire ejections.
Ejections: 71 (on pace for 204 [+8 from last wk] Ejections). (Compare to: 180 Total 2013 Ejections)
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): Boston Red Sox - 8 (TB, NYY, CHC - 5).
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): BAL, CLE, MIN, OAK, PHI, SD - 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Manager ejected most often): Rick Renteria - 3 (1.000 QOC Y).
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejected most often): Daniel Murphy, Elvis Andrus - 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dan Bellino (1.000 QOC + 3 QOCU).
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Fieldin Culbreth - 8 (.750).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Basner, Tim Timmons - 1.000 in 3/3.
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .745 (38 Y / 13 N) + 20 Irrecusable = 71 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 12-40-19.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 26-45. (Delta: 14-5; WPCT: .737).

Next up is the category of Instant Replay Reviews. Our sample size is n=425.

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Oakland A's, Chicago Cubs - 22.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): Baltimore Orioles - 7.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria - 21 (.476 CSP).
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Mike Redmond - .833 in 10/12.
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .497.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): Bryan Price, Terry Francona - .250.*
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Atlanta Braves - .727.
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Cincinnati Reds - .182.
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jim Reynolds - 13 (.615 RAP).
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Larry Vanover - 29 (.345).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Bellino, Carapazza, Guccione - 1.000 in 5/5.
"Umpire of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Pat Hoberg, Dale Scott - .000 in 0/3.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .539 (229/425 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 141-174-108.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 201-222. (Delta: 60-48; WPCT: .556).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
Games Played: 843 of 2430.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 425 (on pace for 1,225 [+1 from last wk] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 61 (14%), .754 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 364 (86%), .503 RAP.

- By Inning: 7 (56), 6 (55), 8 (54), 5|9 (50), 1|3 (37), 2|4 (36), Extra Innings (14).
- By Type: Safe/Out (325), HR/Not HR (32), Rule 7.13 (18), HBP/Foul (16), Fair/Foul (10).
- By Day of Week: Sun (79), Wed (68), Sat (65), Mon (60), Fri (57), Thu (49), Tue (47).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 22 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 12 Challenges [.583 RAP]).
1. Chicago Cubs: 22 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 21 Challenges [.524 RAP]).
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 21 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 19 Challenges [.684 RAP]).
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 20 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 19 Challenges [.684 RAP]).
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 18 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 17 Challenges [.471 RAP]).
5. LA Angels/Anaheim: 18 (3 Crew Chief Reviews [.667 RAP], 15 Challenges [.533 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
1. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .833 (10/12 Challenges Overturned).
2. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): .727 (8/11 Challenges Overturned).
3. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees): .692 (9/13 Challenges Overturned).
4. Bruce Bochy (SF Giants), Bud Black (SD Padres): .667 (8/12, 6/9 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
*1. Gene Lamont (Oakland Athletics Acting Manager): .000 (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
2. Terry Francona (CLE Indians), Bryan Price (CIN Reds): .250 (3/12, 2/6 Challenges Overturned).
4. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .300 (3/10 Challenges Overturned).
5. Joe Maddon (TB Rays), John Gibbons (TOR Blue Jays): .316 (6/19, 6/19 Challenges Overturned).

Team Success Percentage - TSP
1. ATL - .727 (8/11).
2. MIA - .688 (11/16).
3. SF - .667 (8/12).
4. NYY, DET - .600 (9/15, 9/15).
6. HOU - .583 (7/12).
7. COL, BAL - .571 (8/14, 4/7).
9. SD - .546 (6/11).
10. KC - .539 (7/13).
11. TEX - .533 (8/15).
12. PIT, NYM, MIL, LAD - .500 (9/18, 6/12, 5/10, 7/14).
16. PHI - .467 (7/15).
17. WAS - .462 (6/13).
League Average - .462 (196/425).
18. CHC, BOS - .455 (10/22, 5/11).
20. LAA - .444 (8/18).
21. MIN - .385 (5/13).
22. STL - .375 (3/8).
23. SEA - .353 (6/17).
24. CWS - .333 (4/12).
25. OAK - .318 (7/22).
26. TB, ARI - .300 (6/20, 3/10).
28. TOR - .286 (6/21).
29. CLE - .267 (4/15).
30. CIN - .182 (2/11).

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
1. Dan Bellino, Vic Carapazza, Chris Guccione - 1.000 (5/5).
4. Jordan Baker - 1.000 (4/4).
5. Chris Segal - 1.000 (3/3).
6. Scott Barry, David Rackley - 1.000 (2/2).
8. John Hirschbeck - 1.000 (1/1).
9. Greg Gibson, Mark Wegner - .857 (6/7).
11. Clint Fagan, Mike Estabrook - .833 (5/6).
13. Hunter Wendelstedt, Tripp Gibson, Eric Cooper - .800.
16. Tim Timmons, Brian Knight, Rob Drake - .750.
19. Mark Ripperger, DJ Reyburn, Manny Gonzalez - .714.
...
League Average - .502.
...
76. Marty Foster, CB Bucknor - .200.
78. Woodring, Scott, Scheurwater, Kellogg, Hoberg, Gosney, Gorman - .000.

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